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Brexit-backing economist Ruth Lea has savaged claims from Sky News of an impending recession – and revealed why no deal would actually spark an economic boost. Speaking on Sky News this morning, the political economist predicted a surprise return to growth in the lead-up to Britain’s no deal deadline. Britain is set to leave the European Union on October 31st, with a growing likelihood that the country will leave without a deal.
This has sparked concern among businesses, following the first GDP contraction in the British economy since 2012 this week.
Ruth Lea told host and economic editor Ed Conway: “It does not feel like a recession is coming to me.
“The second quarter figure was basically a correction of the first quarter which had been boosted by the Brexit preparations and stockpiling measures.
“It was a turnaround of about £10bn which is huge.”
She added: “Household consumption this quarter was up 0.5% just like the first quarter, unemployment is still at record lows and real earnings are rising quite quickly.
“When you have unemployment of 3.8 percent, it ain’t no recession.”
She then revealed her shock forecast of growth in the next GDP figures.
The economist said: “As we run up to the 31st October, will businesses start stockbuilding again like they did in the first quarter?
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“If that happens, you might see the third quarter figure boosted by that.”
She pointed to forecasts by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which expects growth to return in the third quarter.
NIESR has forecast that Britain’s GDP will grow by 0.2% in the third quarter.
Brexit-backing economist Ruth Lea has savaged claims the UK is heading for a recession – and revealed why no deal would actually spark an economic boost. Speaking on Sky News this morning, the political economist predicted a surprise return to growth in the lead-up to Britain’s Brexit deadline.